Exhaustion, Politics & The War in Ukraine - Public Support, Allied Endurance & the War in 2024 |
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It's increasingly understood that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a long and hard one - and in that kind of attrition based struggle, resources and political will can matter as much as battlefield victories or defeats.
Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine's allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war - and what it may mean for the war in 2024. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Relevant Reading: Ukraine population pyramid - World Population Review https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population Putin saying Ukraine would last a week without support https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/6/putin-says-ukraine-would-last-a-week-if-western-military-support-stops#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20said,the%20United%20States%20dried%20up. Russian polling on the war https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118 US opinion polling on Russia https://news.gallup.com/poll/1642/russia.aspx The Russia Today article on Zelensky's popularity https://www.rt.com/russia/585911-ukraine-zelensky-popularity-poll/ Ukrainian attitudes towards the war: https://kyivindependent.com/survey-95-of-ukrainians-believe-in-kyivs-victory-against-russia/ https://www.ponarseurasia.org/victory-despite-the-cost-what-ukrainians-think-about-the-war-peace-and-russia/ https://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx Analysis and reporting on Russian 2024 Budget: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02/ Featured Daily Mail Article on UK support https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12585131/Britons-UK-troops-Ukraine-russia-war.html Reporting on Russian use of prisoners for military purposes: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/21/russia-moves-to-legalise-prisoners-fighting-in-ukraine-war https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-war/ https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-drafting-prisoners-law-ukraine-war-attrition/32627429.html US Poling on Russia https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/#:~:text=Over%20six%2Din%2Dten%20Americans,the%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine. Poling on US war in Afghanistan https://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/15/afghan.war.poll/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/publics-views-of-afghanistan-war-have-turned-sour/ https://news.gallup.com/poll/115270/americans-afghanistan-war-worth-fighting.aspx Polling on US war in Iraq - 2006 https://news.gallup.com/poll/23374/american-public-opinion-iraq-five-conclusions.aspx Polling on the US war in Iraq - 0082 https://www.pewresearch.org/2008/03/19/public-attitudes-toward-the-war-in-iraq-20032008/ US poling on Ukraine: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/pp_2022-03-15_ukraine-russia_00-05/ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/almost-half-of-americans-think-u-s-spending-too-much-on-ukraine-aid-ap-norc-poll-says https://news.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspx The US affirming "As long as it takes": https://www.ft.com/content/ebe3fb32-ec99-4a9a-a757-51e2203223be Reporting on Ukraine's 'will not back down' stance https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/29/ukraine-fm-vows-to-keep-fighting-while-lobbying-nato-support Stoltenberg on the need to prepare for a long war https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/22/jens-stoltenberg-nato-chief-west-support-ukraine-for-long-war Bloomberg on mobilisation changes in UA https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/zelenskiy-faces-manpower-dilemma-in-ukraine-s-stalled-offensive?embedded-checkout=true Article source for Avdiivka image https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-loses-roughly-4-000-soldiers-in-avdiivka-worst-casualties-rate-in-2023/ Corrections & Caveats: All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:04 — War Exhaustion 00:13:51 — Impacts And Drivers 00:16:14 — Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine 00:20:07 — Ukraine 00:30:53 — Russia 00:41:23 — The United States 00:53:31 — The European Union 00:58:57 — The UK 01:02:01 — What Does This Mean? 01:03:27 — Conclusion 01:04:47 — Channel Update |