How to Create an NFL Football Expected Value Betting Model |
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In this video, I am going to show you how to easily create an Excel based NFL Football sports betting model. This model will identify positive expected value sports betting opportunities. The model will utilize the Kelly Criteria formula to calculate the optimal bet size for each positive expected value betting opportunity. Utilize this model for the upcoming 2023 NFL football season and get to placing NFL football bets for the week ahead!
***Timestamps*** 0:00 Introduction 2:43 Pinnacle Sportsbook Odds 4:45 Inputting Sharp Odds into Model 5:02 Converting Odds to Win Percentages with Vig and No-Vig % 6:56 Converting No-Vig Percentages into Break-even American Odds 7:41 Market Width Calculation for Moneyline Odds 8:57 Line Shopping at SportsBook Review 9:33 Positive Expected Value Bet Moneyline Example 10:05 Kelly Criteria Formula Calculations and Wager Amount 13:12 Positive Expected Value Bet Spread Example 15:30 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 👉 Completed Template Available For Purchase: https://www.etsy.com/listing/1560091821/pro-football-expected-value-sports 📚 ExcelHelpNow Etsy Shop: https://excelhelpnow.etsy.com --- 25% off Everything in Store with Promo Code: YouTube25 📈 OddsJam - https://oddsjam.com/?ref=excelhelpnow Positive Expected Value Sports Betting platform I utilize to make profitable sports bets: --- Get $100 off your OddsJam Subscription with the promo code: HLMAN62346 🙌 Sportsbooks Sign-Ups (More Sportsbooks = More +EV Bets) DraftKings --- https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/feartheihawk/US-IA-SB FanDuel --- https://fndl.co/xkcruak BetMGM --- https://www.ia.betmgm.com/en/mobileportal/invitefriendssignup?invID=2808775 Caesars --- https://caesars.com/sportsbook?AR=RAF-8N8-VDG Bet365 --- https://bet365.onelink.me/pD9G/RAF [Use my referral code in the app 1AHVI7YBM1IXP to get $50.00 in Bonus Bets when you join] Fliff --- https://get.fliffapp.com/QlC3/ho054usi [Referral Code: 55KSD] SuperBook --- https://www.superbook.com/ [Promo Code: ERGYWQV] Disclaimer: The affiliate links above may provide me with a commission for purchases made through the link, but these are a product I use and highly recommend. All information in the video is strictly for information purposes only, author assumes no liability for any bets/wagers placed utilizing the information covered in the video. |