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"The economic impact of climate and weather" by prof. Richard S.J. Tol

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In the study “The economic impact of climate and weather”, Prof. R. Tol proposes a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: a stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of technical inefficiency. The author tests it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Results reconcile inconsistencies in previous studies: climate determines production possibilities in both rich and poor countries, whereas weather anomalies enhance inefficiency only in poor countries. In a long-run perspective, the climate effect dominates over the weather effect: simulations suggest that, in the worst-case scenario with unmitigated warming, climate change will curb global output by 13% by 2100, and that a large share of these damages would be avoided if warming were limited to 2◦C.

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