Russian Hybrid Warfare & Ukraine: Propaganda, cyberwarfare & hybrid war methods |
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Description: Often we think of war and peace as binary states - one is either at war or at peace. But history is full of examples of the line between those two states being blurred, and in a modern world of nuclear weapons and globalised economic and military competition, that competitive state between war and peace has grown particularly prominent. When Russia overtook Crimea in 2014 with its "little green men" the world got a high visibility view of what a hybrid war, combining information warfare, unconventional methods and conventional military force might look like. Today, I want to give an overview of hybrid war methods, their potential, and potential defences against them. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats/comments: As flagged in this video - the focus on Russian Hybrid war should not be taken as a claim that other countries do not have hybrid war capabilities The discussion of commentary and writings on hybrid warfare in this presentation are, out of necessity, incomplete Examples of phenomena like amplification are included for illustrative purposes only and all content within this presentation is presented primarily for entertainment purposes For the avoidance of doubt, I am making no claims as to the intent, actions, influence, sympathies, or otherwise of any individual person or persons in this presentation (though I may refer to reporting by others on those topics) Images may be unrelated to the text and audio presented Sources & Reading: Clark - Russian Hybrid Warfare https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Hybrid%20Warfare%20ISW%20Report%202020.pdf Gearasimov - Presentation to the General Staff Academy 2018 https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Army-Press-Online-Journal/documents/2019/Gerasimov-2019.pdf Gerasimov - Vectors in the development of military strategy http://csef.ru/en/oborona-i-bezopasnost/348/vektory-razvitiya-voennoj-strategii-8829 JDN 1-19 https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/jdn_jg/jdn1_19.pdf Kofman - Russian Hybrid Warfare and other dark arts https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/russian-hybrid-warfare-and-other-dark-arts/ Monaghan - The 'war' in Russia's Hybrid Warfare https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2987&context=parameters Hofman - Conflict in the 21st Century: the rise of hybrid wars https://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/stories/publications/potomac_hybridwar_0108.pdf The "Firehose of Falsehood" propaganda model https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html Tucker featured by RT https://www.rt.com/news/568524-tucker-carlson-media-hate/ Derleth - Russian New Generation Warfighting https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/SO-20/Derleth-New-Generation-War-1.pdf Russia Cyber Threat Overview - CISA https://www.cisa.gov/russia Russian military admits cyber war effort https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39062663 WHy Russian Cyber Dogs have mostly failed to bark https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/why-cyber-dogs-have-mostly-failed-to-bark/ Russian denial of operations in Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/04/ukraine-crisis-russian-troops-crimea-john-kerry-kiev https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/04/285653335/putin-says-those-arent-russian-forces-in-crimea Matisek - imagining the future of russian agression https://mwi.usma.edu/from-little-green-men-to-little-blue-helmets-imagining-the-future-of-russian-aggression-and-what-to-do-about-it/ Russia on nuclear risk https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-risk-nuclear-conflict-highest-level-decades-2023-03-22/v Little green men 2014 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154 The IRA, social media and political polarisation in the USA 2012-2018 https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004&context=senatedocs CSIS on Russia and Brexit https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit Russian military and security periodicals https://www.eastview.com/resources/journals/russian-military-security-periodicals/ Bulgarian blasts https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-arms-depot-blasts-russia-ukraine-war-investigation/32322902.html Wired reporting on cyberwar https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-hack-emails-asean-southeast-asia Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Open 00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About 00:03:03 — Sponsor: Ground News 00:04:09 — The Great Power Challenge 00:08:20 — Competition & Western Conception 00:13:51 — Russian Hybrid Warfare 00:22:13 — Cyberwarfare 00:26:09 — Proxy Use 00:29:43 — Ambiguity & Kinetic Operations 00:34:09 — Information Warfare 00:51:43 — Designing Hybrid Campaign 01:00:00 — Hybrid Warfare In Ua 01:08:21 — Countering Hybrid Warfare 01:12:40 — Conclusions 01:13:36 — Channel Update |