Speaker: Arthur Kroeber, Founding Partner and Head of Research, Gavekal Dragonomics

As China emerged from Covid lockdowns early this year, many expected that its economy would enjoy a roaring recovery. Instead, it has stalled out. Is this just a short term problem? Or is it a sign that China’s economy is headed for the “middle income trap” of stagnation thanks to high debt, an aging population, and Xi Jinping’s increasingly autocratic rule?

Arthur R. Kroeber is the founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm with offices in Beijing and Hong Kong; and partner in its parent firm Gavekal. Before establishing Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is adjunct professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business, a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (2nd edition 2020) is published by Oxford University Press.