Finding leverage in the NCAA bracket is key to success. Typically, the public is overconfident in advancing teams "likely" to win/advance. I highlight my favorite leverage spots using my own handicapped games.


I project point spreads using adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. I created a model (and named it Paddy) where I weight recent play far heavier than most analytic sites do. For more info on how this works, check out my PINNED VIDEO on this channel.

After I run the model, I create a pool of any game showing at least a possession (3 pts of value) from my point spread vs the actual point spread. I have pasted the values from my script into excel for ease of use during these videos. Every point spread I show will be a HOME TEAM POINT SPREAD. If the number is negative (-), the home team is favored. If the number is positive, the road team is favored.

I show point spreads for my model (Paddy), Bart Torvik, KenPom, and the actual spread. I may reference the KP # often as historically spreads tend to migrate towards the KenPom line but that has fallen off as people have gotten sharper.

At this point I have a full pool of every game showing roughly a possession of value vs the point spread. my goal then is to eliminate games from the pool.
What I look at to eliminate games from my pool
• 4 factors – more info here (https://kenpom.com/blog/four-factors/)
o eFG – basically a shooting percentage that weights 3’s as 1.5x
o TO% - what % of the time do you force a TO/turn ball over
o OR/DR% - what % of your misses do you rebound/allow opp misses to be rebounded
o FTR – rate and which you draw fouls
• Shot Selection
o Where on the court does the team take shots and where do they allow shots
 Close two’s/dunks
 Mid-range
 3 Pointers
• ShotQuality (https://shotquality.com/team-standings)
o ShotQuality is a few years old and an innovative concept. It grades out all the shots taken/allowed and scores them with an expected pt value.
o Here is an explanation of how it works (https://shotquality.com/stats-explained)
o Here are some examples (https://shotquality.com/article/6)
• Matchups
o While I played the game and understand most basketball concepts, the best resource for types of offensive/defensive philosophies as well as last minute player news. Jordan Majewski (https://staringatthefloorboards.wordp...) is the best. This is the easiest $10 you will ever spend per season.
• Spot/Situation
o Betting is like a stock market, you don’t want to buy high on every team on a 7-game winning streak or sell low on a team coming off a few losses. There’s a human element to motivation and getting caught looking ahead to your next opponent.

So there may be 100 games on a schedule, then maybe 28 show as a possession of value using offensive efficiencies. I go game-by-game through the 28 and highlight areas of risk. Anything left standing is in play for me.

Then comes the tricky part of timing your bet and achieving CLV. I color “green” for plays I am comfortable with even if lines moves a bit, “yellow” is definitely in the pool but trying to time it right or matchup is carrying a little risk, “orange” means the game has a lot of risk but was still showing as an efficiency play, and “gray” is n/a for me. Sometimes, significant line movement and bring a n/a into play.

Every single bet I place is trackable on betstamp. User ID: CDTN
This channel exists because I could never find anything like it, only touty stuff based on narratives