European Defence & The Russian Challenge - Third Superpower or paper tiger? |
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Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Be well informed. Download the free Ground News app at: https://www.ground.news/perun Intro: Throughout 2022, implied or explicit Russian military threats to Europe by Russian politicians or media figures have become so common as to be almost ubiquitous. In many ways, this is a continuation of long historical pattern dating back to the cold war, when much of Western Europe lived in fear that, at any moment, the Soviet army may come storming West with a phalanx of metal and manpower. For many European leaders, the assumption long was that only the USA could serve as a meaningful counterbalance to the Soviet threat. Even with the end of the cold war, NATO wargames and academic papers alike have often modeled scenarios where Russian forces maul NATO opponents, occupying the Baltic States or Poland in short order, demanding an American response. But 2022 has also proven the Russian military is not what it claimed to be, and so it is likewise worth taking stock of what Europe has to offer. For while individually, most European militaries have glaring shortcomings, especially compared to the USA (particularly in the area of munitions storages and readiness rates) taken together they represent and impressive military force. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Sources: System and manpower figures are as per Military Balance 2021. NATO budget figures for 2021 (est) are as per NATO release: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_193983.htm NATO Strategic Concept (2022) https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/ INIOCHOS '22 exercise (illustrative of joint exercise/training) https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/allied-fighters-increase-combat-readiness-during-exercise-iniochos-22 UK MOD aircraft flight hour figures https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/827297/Military_flying_hours_by_fleet_FY2018-19.pdf International Comparisons of Real Military Purchasing Power: A Global Database - Peter Robertson https://api.research-repository.uwa.edu.au/ws/portalfiles/portal/96622664/DP19.13_Robertson.pdf Russian politicians suggesting Poland is in line for invasion: https://archive.ph/pG5dj Polish Official stating Europe cannot defend itself without the USA https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-united-states-crimea-07647005997157def8aa16b8cf833b53 Polling on NATO and common defence obligations https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_196561.htm RAND - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html Caveats & Corrections: The use of PPP figures is always fraught with different methods often yielding quite different results. They're useful, and almost certainly necessary if you want an accurate picture, but keep in mind the limitations of the figures used here. Similarly, while I use MB2021 for consistency between videos for all system/manpower figures, they are not perfect, and in particular the definitions used for active/stored equipment or whether a given unit should count as active/reserve/paramilitary or be ignored entirely is occasionally, in my view, up for debate. There are also, I believe, three locations where I misspeak in this episode while the backing slides are correct. For example, when the stats on screen refer to PSCs, (big ships) I say coastal combatants or words to that effect. If it sounds odd - check the slide. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:55 — What Am I Covering? 00:02:46 — SPONSOR: GROUND NEWS 00:03:57 — Evolution Of European Security 00:04:04 — A Militarised Continent 00:05:15 — Nato & The Warsaw Pact 00:06:23 — The Peace Dividend & NATO Expansion 00:08:46 — Ukraine and Beyond 00:10:18 — European Forces Today 00:10:29 — What Are We Counting? 00:11:44 — Let's Talk Money 00:12:23 — GRAPH: Estimated Defence Expenditure (NATO fig.) 00:12:52 — The PPP Factor 00:15:25 — GRAPH: Estimated Expenditure (with PPP Premiums) 00:15:52 — The PPP Picture 00:16:46 — Manpower 00:18:14 — GRAPH: Active Reserve Manpower 00:19:36 — Equipment 00:20:41 — The Full Spectrum 00:21:23 — European Strengths (on Paper) 00:21:38 — European Strengths: Land 00:23:30 — European Strengths: Sea 00:25:42 — European Strengths: Air 00:28:02 — European Strengths: Independent Atomic Deterrence 00:30:47 — Fit For Purpose? 00:32:11 — There is No "European" Military 00:33:41 — Challenges of Division 00:36:20 — Can, Would & Deterrence 00:37:45 — Modernisation 00:38:48 — Depth & Resilience 00:39:56 — Readiness and Mobility 00:41:40 — Comparisons & Capabilities? 00:42:33 — Russia as the Yardstick 00:46:16 — Demonstrated Capabilities 00:48:12 — The Aerial Dimension? 00:49:34 — Cognitive Dissonance? 00:50:44 — The US Comparison 00:51:29 — THe Gap - Power Projection & Nuclear Capabilities 00:54:48 — Opportunities to Grow? 00:57:47 — Conclusions 01:00:07 — Channel Update |