Russia is highly likely to remain a dictatorship under the leadership of Vladimir Putin through March 2024. In our baseline scenario, Putin is reelected in the March 2024 presidential election. In the lead-up to the election, the Ukrainian military fails to regain enough territory to convince the Russian elite or sufficient numbers of the general public that the war has been a failure and is not worth the cost, meaning that no imminent threat to Putin's grip on powers emerges.

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