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Let's discuss what would happen if Russia were to lose the war in Ukraine. This isn't an assessment of how the war is currently or a prediction of where it's headed, rather we're looking at the argument that if Russia were to lose, this would somehow be a catastrophic event felt around the world. There are three main arguments raised in this sense: that a Russian defeat would lead to domestic political instability in Russia, that it could lead to the collapse of Russia and that Russia would go nuclear before this happens. None of those are likely and we walk through each in this video.

00:00 Introduction
01:29 Fear of political instability
05:22 Fear that Russia would collapse
10:12 Fear of Russia going nuclear

Sources
Timothy Snyder discussion: https://twitter.com/i/status/1782418319460458591
Chatham House: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine/fallacy-5-russian-defeat-more-dangerous-russian-victory
Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/15/thomas-graham-russia-ukraine-00121247

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