Check out my new book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? (And How Will It End?)" on Amazon (paid link): https://amzn.to/3OIXk6E

What caused the Russo-Ukrainian War? This video tackles that question in four phases. First, we examine the substantive reasons Russia invaded Ukraine. Second, I explain why those reasons are collectively a half-cause for war. Third, we switch gears to discuss bargaining problems. Finally, we will investigate what each of these explanations implies for how the war will end.

0:00 Outline
1:19 Separatist Regions
3:54 Crimean Land Bridge
5:02 Russian Irredentism
6:42 East-West Rivalry
7:49 Energy
9:36 Water
10:34 Nazis
12:20 Substantive Explanations Are Half-Causes
12:54 Visualizing War's Expected Outcome (LINES ON MAPS)
14:21 Costs Incentivize Bargaining
15:09 Bargaining over Oil
17:00 Bargaining over Autonomy
17:34 Why War Is Puzzling
18:52 Preventive War and Shifting Power
21:00 Preemptive War and First Strikes
24:20 Uncertainty and Miscalculation
26:24 Rational, Unitary Actor Explanations for War
27:05 Irrationality
29:39 Personal Benefits
31:28 Substantive Cases and War Termination
32:57 Leadership Change
36:36 Stopping Power Shifts
39:52 Information Convergence
42:29 Endgame

Almost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100394

Artist: http://incompetech.com/

Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):

From OSCE Special Monitoring Mission:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/albums/72157650787494428
https://www.flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/albums/72157650784227730

From European People's Party:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/45198836@N04/5555939209

Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/):

From spoilt.exile:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/spoilt_exile/12038421283

Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):

From Bundesarchiv:
https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-R92623

From Ввласенко:
https://tinyurl.com/yaj9nuk2

From RIAN archive:
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#141088
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461

Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

From President.gov.ua:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/zustrich-prezidenta-ukrayini-z-predstavnikami-kompaniyi-appl-4273

From mvs.gov.ua:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=328777909277865&set=pcb.328778209277835

From Government of Ukraine:
https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/4344/prezident-ukrajini-viktor-jushenko-privitav-hliborobiv-zaporizhzhya-z-pershim-zibranim-milyonom-tonn-zerna-urozhaju-2008-roku.html
https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vistup-prezidenta-ukrajini-na-plenarnomu-zasidanni-samitu-initsiativi-shidne-partnerstvo.html

From armyinform.com.ua:
https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/26/francziya-vymagatyme-vid-rf-znyaty-oblogu-mariupolya/

From Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20604
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/37381
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49382
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49615
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62388
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62626
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62983
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65079
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65418
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65869
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66191
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66254
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66414
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66675
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67438
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67846
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68097
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68191
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http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68386
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68500

From Rosavtodor.ru:
http://rosavtodor.ru/press-center/media/photo/232301
http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381

From mil.ru:
http://mil.ru/winner_may/history/more.htm?id=11925131@cmsArticle