The IMF, ADB and World Bank have all upgraded India’s growth, soon after their earlier projections. What has changed their minds? Economist Radhika Pandey and Deputy Editor TCA Sharad Raghavan explain in #MacroSutra
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Read Radhika Pandey's column here : https://theprint.in/macrosutra/india-set-to-grow-faster-than-expected-but-geopolitical-tensions-inflation-global-debt-loom/2046925/
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Read the IMF report here : https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024
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Read the ADB report here : https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/957856/asian-development-outlook-april-2024.pdf
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Read the World Bank South Asia Update here : https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/sar/publication/south-asia-development-update
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Chapters:
01:38 - The IMF in April upgraded India’s growth to 6.8% from the 6.5% it predicted in January
02:05 - The Asian Development Bank has revised India’s growth to 7% from 6.7%
02:33 - The World Bank has raised India’s growth projection to 6.6% from 6.4%
03:20 - The IMF attributes higher growth to increase in demand & India’s working-age population
03:36 - The ADB highlights the recovery in consumption, exports and investment
04:05 - The World Bank says that South Asia’s growth can be attributed to India, but say it’s driven by public investment
06:46 - Latest outlook shows advanced economies have shown resilience, grown faster than earlier feared
09:39 - While India’s FY25 growth has been upgraded, it is still slower than the growth in FY24
10:04 - For China, the IMF predicts a sharp slowdown in growth, which has pulled the emerging & developing Asia region
11:12 - China’s elevated debt levels also pose a risk to the global economy, including India
14:53 - Fresh disturbances in the Middle East could push up inflation & destabilise current projections of growth
16:48 - The IMF has raised concerns about the high debt levels globally, but especially in the U.S. & China
18:33 - High debt in the U.S. will raise their bond yields, which will result in funds flowing out of India to the U.S.
21:05 - Apart from global headwinds, there are internal frictions that are holding back potential growth
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