The Perfect Storm for the Turkish Economy

• Real Turkey presents its Turkey spring forecasts

• 1Q witnessed a slow but steady deterioration in economic fundamentals

• 2Q could see the economy enter stagnation

• The big mistake at home: Premature normalization

• External shocks: US bond yields, strong dollar, energy and food rallies

• Fiscal and monetary policy have little maneuvering room.

• TL likely to depreciate for the time being.

• Current account adjustment delayed to summer.

• CPI inflation could test 20% temporarily.

• Economic shocks could translate into political instability.

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