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Video Transcript:

Betting against the public is exactly what it sounds like.

When the majority of the gambling population that’s betting on a game are all taking the same side, there are lots of good reasons YOU should consider going against the trend and betting against the group.

In this video we’ll explain everything you need to know about betting against the public, also called “fading the public”, including what it is, how it works and the common situations where it’s most likely to pay off.

Let’s get started.


STATS BEHIND BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC

There are a few main reasons why betting the opposite way to the general public is a winning strategy.

First there are the stats.

Let’s look at the NFL over the last eight seasons to show you what we mean. In games where at least three quarters of the action was on one side, the public was wrong almost 54% of the time.

During the same period of time, underdogs covered the spread 55% of the time when 70 to 75% of the public was betting on the favorites with a spread of seven or more points.

Four or five per cent might not seem like a lot but in the long run, that kind of edge adds up.


WHEN TO BET AGAINST THE PUBLIC

Betting against the public works with moneylines, point spreads and over/under totals. As a general rule look for bets where 70% or more of the action is one side.

To see the percentage of the public that’s betting on each side, search sports stats sites like sportsinsights.com. There are free and pay versions available and lots of good options to choose from.

For moneylines, look for games where favorites are overyhyped and a big majority of people are betting on them to win. If you can identify other reasons why the favorites may underperform like a star player that’s in a slump or a key injury, betting on the underdog is even more appealing.

Point spreads and over/under bets are where you can get the best deals betting against the public.

In addition to falling for media hype, people actually have an ingrained psychological tendency to bet on favorites and big scores.

Oddsmakers are aware of this tendency and to take advantage of it they do what’s called “line-shading”.


SHADING AND FADING THE PUBLIC

Since sportsbooks know that lots of people are going to bet on Overs and favorites without analyzing the lines in detail, the books can push the odds in the house’s favor and still get tons of action on the other side of the bet.

This is called “line shading” and when sportsbooks shade a point spread or totals bet in favor of the house, it also favors smart gamblers who bet against the public.

The final reason betting against the public works is that generally speaking, oddsmakers are way better than your average gambler at predicting winners.

Even though generally speaking sportsbooks like to balance their action to reduce their risk, they also like to take a position when they think they have an advantage. If the majority of people are putting action on one side of a bet it’s a good indication that the casino thinks the public has it wrong.

For more tips and tricks check out our full guide to betting against the public and then put your new skills to work.


Thanks for watching and good luck.

Find out more about Kurt Long here: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1273767/