This talk was given at a local TEDx event, produced independently of the TED Conferences. Most economic choices involve a prediction process. Before buying a house and getting a mortgage, you need to predict what will happen to interest rates and house prices in the next few years. If you are choosing among university degrees, you might base your decision on the expected chances of getting a job after graduation. But how rational are human beings when they predict the future, and then make decisions based on those predictions? Are they very smart, or they consistently make mistakes? Do they learn from those mistakes, or not? And what are the implications for policymakers? We will explore these issues with an unorthodox example in which your own life will be at risk.

Antonio's research interests are in macroeconomics, especially in dynamic contracts, fiscal and monetary policy, learning, and computational methods. His current research is about optimal monetary policy with learning, strategic default, international risk sharing, and unemployment insurance schemes.

About TEDx, x = independently organized event In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)