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While the Ukrainian army has demonstrated that it's capable of fighting Russian forces on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has always been far more asymmetric. In this episode we look at the changing nature of that war, including the emergence of behind-the-lines strikes, and the upcoming arrival of the much awaited F-16s for Ukraine's air force.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats & corrections:
All normal caveats and cautions apply, including, as always, the nature of the content as entertainment and all the risks of error etc

I also at one point refer to the 'fuel tank' of drones - note that many deployed drones will have metal batteries rather than fuel tanks

I also refer to UA getting Block 20 MLU F-16s on one slide - see pin

Sources & Reading:

The Russian Way of War (Grau & Bartles)
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

Ian Williams - Russia's strike campaign in Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/putins-missile-war

Ukraine sortie figures
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3753338-ukrainian-aviation-has-flown-over-14000-sorties-since-start-of-fullscale-war.html

http://armyinform.com.ua/2023/08/26/vid-pochatku-shyrokomasshtabnoyi-vijny-aviacziya-povitryanyh-syl-zdijsnyla-ponad-14-000-bojovyh-vylotiv/

Justin Bronk - Russian Combat AIr Strengths and Limitations:
https://www.cna.org/reports/2023/05/russian-combat-air-strengths-and-limitations

Tu-22M strike
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66573842

Ukraine getting creative to gain a free Mi-8
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/24/7416884/

Russia reporting on the Novgorod drone strike
https://tass.com/defense/1662561

Russian reporting on Pskov strike
https://tass.com/emergencies/1667093

UA statement on a 'new long range weapon'
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-drone-zelenskyy-weapon-long-range-2ea798a1aa2921387c2f6a1df2be0bb9

F-16 Announcement:
Back in April 2022:
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/04/01/ukraine-aims-high-request-f-15-and-f-16-jets-heres-why-it-probably-wont-happen.html

https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1509619197290156032?s=20&t=YXAohTpk0ZtbZl8i3khviQ

CSIS - Ian Williams - Russia isn't going to run out of missiles
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles

Ships leaving Odesa port
https://www.ft.com/content/3fbb9cc8-3805-4591-9694-5c45cfd8c51b

Russia missile strike on Kyiv mentioned
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosions-heard-ukraines-kyiv-mayor-2023-08-30/

Strike on Lviv (pictured)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/6/russian-missile-attack-hits-apartment-building-in-ukraines-lviv

F16 Now:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usafe-boss-ukraine-f-16-2024-proficiency/

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3504621/us-will-train-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-ground-crews/

Russia drone production efforts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/08/17/russia-iran-drone-shahed-alabuga/

Kursk Airfield images:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/163xea4/kursk_airfield_satellite_images/

https://ts2.space/en/newly-released-satellite-imagery-of-kursk-military-airbase-shows-no-damage-or-destroyed-aircraft/

Destruction of S-400 in Crimea claim
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20852

UA Drone strikes:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drone-strikes-deep-russia-seen-ukrainian-rebuff-missile-barrages-2022-12-06/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/destroyed-tu-22m-seen-at-now-empty-russian-airbase

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20973

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/27/7417295/

Reporting on the mentioned UA pilot loss incident
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/ukrainian-pilot-juice-among-three-killed-in-jet-collision-says-volodymyr-zelenskiy

Reporting on Sypaq drones
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aussie-cardboard-drones-used-in-attack-on-russian-airfield-20230829-p5e0bv.html

Reporting on Russia strikes vs Su-24

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-struck-crucial-ukraine-air-base-planes-carry-storm-shadow-2023-7?r=US&IR=T

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20289

Glide bomb employment:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-truth-about-russias-mysterious-winged-glide-bombs

https://wavellroom.com/2023/04/17/russian-glide-bombs/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-su-27s-are-launching-jdam-er-winged-bombs-too

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Air War In Ukraine
00:01:21 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:09 — Background & Objectives
00:04:36 — Sabotage And Special Operations
00:17:26 — Long Range Strikes: Russia
00:33:55 — Long Range Strikes: Ukraine
00:40:34 — Ukraine In The Air - F16, ALCMS & Attrition
00:57:25 — Battlefield Aviation
01:07:32 — What Next?
01:09:35 — Conclusion
01:11:02 — Channel Update