While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment.

Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.

And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (https://www.rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below.

Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Relevant Reading/sourcing (partial as travelling without full access to my research notes):

RUSI Biography – Justin Bronk
https://www.rusi.org/people/bronk

RUSI – Bronk, Reynolds & Watling (2022) – The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf

RUSI - Bronk (2022) - The mysterious case of the missing Russian air force
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force#:~:text=On%20the%20fifth%20day%20of,its%20fixed%20wing%20combat%20aircraft.

RUSI - Bronk (2020) - Russian and Chinese air combat trends
https://static.rusi.org/russian_and_chinese_combat_air_trends_whr_final_web_version.pdf

RUSI - Watling and Reynolds (2024) - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024

Featured A-10 article
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12/

The described A-10 meme (not fully accurate it must be said)…
https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/n11iy8/a10_fanboys_be_like_ignore_the_f14d/

Featured article on F-16 training
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-open-f16-training-center-ukraine-pilot/

MiG-31 accident
https://www.businessinsider.com/videos-russian-mig-combat-jet-burst-flames-before-crashing-lake-2023-4

Example of how widely reporting on Russian FF claims spread:
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-air-defense-threat-putin-air-force-50-1861117

Featured image of PAC-3 manufacturing
https://talkbusiness.net/2020/05/more-patriot-missiles-to-be-produced-in-camden/

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own – and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Are We Talking About?
00:01:43 — Prof. Justin Bronk
00:02:08 — The Evolving Air War
00:05:14 — The GBAD Transition
00:08:18 — KIT Systems
00:12:38 — Patriot Ambush Tactics
00:18:12 — Friendly Fire And The A-50
00:25:15 — A-10
00:29:39 — Sustainability
00:59:48 — Closing Thoughts & The US Role
01:01:28 — An Open Mic On Risks And Issues
01:07:50 — Creativity & Material Limits
01:09:42 — Channel Update