Jonathan Dushoff, PhD
Professor, Biology, Institute for Infectious Disease Research
McMaster University

Sheena Guglani, MSc
Research Analyst, eConsult Centre of Excellence (eConsult COE)
Bruyere Research Institute

Dr. Jonathan Dushoff has spent nearly two decades doing dynamical modelling for infectious diseases. Along with with Sheena Guglani, Dushoff discussed the role of mathematical epidemiology in the context of COVID-19. These are issues including flattening the curve and what’s next – topics that rely on dynamical models as tools to predict what will happen when we reopen.

“You could say I’ve been getting ready for this pandemic for the last 15 to 20 years,” says Dushoff. “And I still wasn’t as well prepared as I should have been. But, on another level, nobody was really ready for this virus. There are so many difficult biological questions that have real relevance for managing the epidemic, and we’re scrambling to learn everything at once, and also to make good decisions based on partial knowledge.”

Looking at transmission rates and social distancing in Korea, Dushoff talked about analyzing epidemic spread to predict health-care demand and to learn about what might happen as we ease social distancing measures. He also discussed trying to measure immunity, and possibly making use of people with immunity to protect others.

Guglani covered a qualitative perspective on infectious disease modelling, looking at key stakeholders – from journalists and public health professionals to government end users and academic modellers – to determine their perceptions and find out what key issues were of interest to these groups.

"The diverse stakeholder groups have many common concerns, such as the challenges in translating modelling results to public health," says Guglani. "Nevertheless, mathematical modelling helps us to understand an outbreak and can put us on a better course of recovery than we might be otherwise."

Expert Perspectives on Pandemics: Global Health Webinar Series 2020
This free webinar series explores transdisciplinary perspectives on pandemics in the context of COVID-19. View the series here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL4mpz0PbgCdl1JECVD8FVhxtcHhu9gODg
or through our WebEx Platform https://globalhealth.mcmaster.ca/2020-webinar-series%20

The COVID-19 emergency presents a global challenge to our health care systems, our economy and our ways of living. In the face of this unprecedented global health crisis, McMaster is dedicated to innovation and collaboration in the discovery of solutions to help combat COVID-19.

Take part in these webinars as experts delve into topics including flattening the curve, forecasting the new Coronavirus, cultural histories and reactions to past pandemics, and the search for a magic bullet. The series is part of the Master of Science in Global Health program's global health symposium, the program's capstone project.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed by attendees, participants, and speakers as part of this webinar series are those of the individuals stating them and are not representative of an ideological stance or public policy position by McMaster University or the Global Health Office.