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Video Transcript:

If you’ve spent any time gambling on sports you’ll know it’s all about numbers.

When it comes to football there here are two numbers that are way more important than all the others.

They’re called key numbers and in football they’re three and seven.
People also use key numbers for betting basketball but we’re going to stick to NFL and college football because that’s where they really shine.

In this video we explain what key numbers are, how they work and how you can use them to make more winning football bets.

Let’s get started.


KEY NUMBERS IN FOOTBALL

Key numbers refer to the most common margins of victory.

Looking back at the last 20 years or so of the NFL, more than 14% of all games have ended with a margin of three points and over 8% of games have been decided by seven points.

That’s because unlike baseball and hockey, points in football are scored mainly in increments of three or seven.

In fact, whenever a game is tied late, or goes into overtime, it’ll almost always end in with a three or seven point margin.

Remember, we’re not talking about the total points scored in the game, just the difference between the winning and losing teams’ scores.

These key numbers are also the reason you see so many point spreads sitting around those three and seven point marks.

Sportsbook like these numbers so much that if they have to adjust their point spread bets, they’ll do it by changing the payout odds instead of moving the spread off a three or a seven.


HOW TO USE KEY NUMBERS FOR BETTING

There are a few ways you can use key numbers to make better bets but let’s start with the basics.

Looking back at the last 20 years of historical NFL data, we can see that when the point spread was 3.5, the favorite covered the spread almost 2% of the time.

When the spread was 7.5 the favorite covered the spread almost 54% of the time.

That means if you had blindly bet on the favorite to cover the spread in on every single game with a 3.5 point spread, you’d be a long-term winner.

Interestingly, when it comes to NCAA football games with the same spreads it was actually the underdog that covered the spread more than half the time.


BUYING POINTS

Another way you can use key numbers to bet point spreads is by buying points.

Sportsbooks let you adjust the point spread in your team’s favor by .5, 1 or 1.5 points. This makes it more likely for your team to cover the spread but you have to pay a premium in the form of worse odds on your bets.

Since key numbers in football are the most common margins of victory, a good strategy is to buy points in order to move the spread past either 3 or 7.

Say you want to bet on the Colts to cover the spread at -3. If they win by one field goal, the bet’s going to be a push and you won’t win.

By buying a half point to make the spread -2.5, you get slightly worse odds but a way bigger chance of winning since the most likely margin of victory for the Colts is three points.

When you learn how to use them, key numbers are a powerful concept for betting football.

For more tips and strategies about how key numbers can help you make better bets, check out the full guide available for free on WSN.com.

Thanks for watching and good luck.


Find out more about Kurt Long here: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1273767/